Ester, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

565
FXAK69 PAFG 021507
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
607 AM AKST Mon Feb 2 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Active weather continues for the North Slope, West Coast, the
Brooks Range and the Northern Interior due to either periods of
snow, gusty winds and blowing snow, as well as blizzard to near
blizzard conditions along the Arctic Coast from Point Hope to
Kaktovik. For the above reasons, Blizzard Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories remain in effect for the Arctic Coast through
at least Wednesday with potential to extend some of these through
Friday. Gusty winds and snow chances continue in the Northern
Interior through mid-week, especially for the higher elevations.
Blowing snow and gusty winds become of greater concern Tuesday
through Wednesday night around the Dalton, Elliot and Steese
Highway Summits which resulted in the issuance of a Winter Storm
Watch. Otherwise, generally dry and quiet conditions persist with
temperatures trending warmer by mid-week in the Interior, although
Delta Junction and the Middle Tanana Valley are expected to get
more gusty winds midweek. Cold temperatures persists for the North
Slope for the foreseeable future.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...

- Generally quiet and dry conditions with a mix of sun and clouds
  and strong inversions persist over the next few days.

- Temperatures for the coldest valleys will reach down to around
  -10F to -20F through Tuesday morning.

- Isolated light snow showers will continue across the Northern
  Interior through Monday night, with increasing snow chances
  building in from the southeast Tuesday into Wednesday.
  Accumulations between a T-3" are expected with the highest
  amounts in the mountains.

- A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Dalton, Elliott,
  and Steese Highway Summits from Tuesday through Wednesday night
  for gusty winds and blowing snow.

- Temperatures will rise mid to late week as winds ramp up across
  higher elevations and around the Middle Tanana Valley.

West Coast and Western Interior...

- Light snow showers will continue across the West Coast and
  Northwest Interior through tonight, with additional snow
  accumulations around a T-1".

- Northeast winds will continue to increase across Western Alaska
  tonight into Monday and Tuesday, with strongest winds expected
  along the West Coast and across higher elevations. Gusty winds
  may lead to areas of blowing snow at times through mid-week.

- Temperatures hold steady today with highs from the single digits
  to the teens, and lows in the single digits above and below zero
  with the coldest locations dropping to around -15F. A dip on
  temperatures is expected on Tuesday, before a warm trends sets
  by midweek with highs into the 10s/20s above zero.

- Light snow chances will increase across Western Alaska Wednesday
  into Thursday, but with light accumulations expected.

North Slope and Brooks Range...

- An extended period of blowing snow and low visibility is
  expected through at least mid-week across the Arctic Coast,
  with a mix of Blizzard Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories in
  effect through Wednesday. These could potentially be expanded
  later in the week.

- Light snow showers will continue through Monday, favoring the
  Brooks Range and Eastern North Slope. Additional snow
  accumulations of a T-2" are expected.

- Temperatures cool down to the -10F to -30F range this week with
  even colder wind chills down to -40 to -50F.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday Night.

Active weather continues across the area as observations in the
West Coast, Northern Interior, the Brooks Range and the Arctic
Coast continue to indicate periods of light snow. Furthermore,
gusty to strong northeast winds persist along the coastal and
high elevation areas. Blizzard to near blizzard conditions remain
in the warned areas along the Arctic coast this morning. Point
Hope and Cape Lisburne have had periods of near blizzard
conditions overnight. Blowing snow and reduced visibility persists
between Wainwright and Kaktovik. Therefore, no changes to the
current Blizzard Warning and Winter Weather Advisory is expected.

The advertised weather pattern over the weekend appears to come
to fruition this week. A high amplitude upper level ridge extends
all the way from the US West Coast through Central Alaska, while
another upper high sits in the Arctic Ocean. Meanwhile, near the
surface a 1040mb high in the Arctic interacts with a surface low in
the Gulf of Alaska tightening the pressure gradient across the
state, especially from the Bering Strait to the Arctic Coast. As
the surface high expands to the east and the low tracks towards
southwest Alaska; this will aid in enhancing strong and gusty
winds in the West Coast and Arctic Coast, especially between Point
Hope to Point Lay, where gusts of 50 to 65 mph are likely to
continue through Wednesday. Current ensemble guidance from the GFS
and ECMWF continues to indicate that these winds are expected to
continue through most of the week with a very slow decrease in
winds during the second part of the week. For the rest of the
Arctic Coast, from Wainwright to Kaktovik wind gusts of 30 to 40
mph persist with an increase in winds on Tuesday into Wednesday
to 40 to 50 mph. Although this is less likely, as most members of
the ensembles are keeping the winds up to 40 mph with the latest
run. Still periods of blowing snow and reductions in visibility
will continue until the gradient relaxes during the second half of
the week.

Another area of concern will be the Northern Interior between
Tuesday and Thursday as moisture is advected north from a
shortwave ejected from the low in the Gulf of Alaska. Periods of
snow are expected across the Interior, especially for the summits
of the Dalton, Elliott and Steese Highways and other high
elevations areas, where 1 to 3 inches of snow are likely with a
40-80% chance of exceeding 2 inches. The rest of the area will
receive a trace to 1 inch of snow. Gusty to strong east to
northeast winds in the Northern Interior will result in periods of
blowing snow and reduced visibility, as gusts to 55 mph are
possible. The latest model runs have brought this system slightly
earlier. Thus, decided to start the Winter Weather Watch earlier,
now starting at 9 AM Tuesday to encompass the period of the
strongest winds and the best chances for snow.

Also, southerly gap winds develop on Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning leading to gusty winds around Delta Junction and the
Middle Tanana Valley.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through next Sunday Night.

In the extended part of the forecast, the main area of concern is
the placement of the Arctic and how fast it will move west; to
allow the pressure gradient to relax resulting in lighter winds
over the Arctic Coast. At the moment, the latest ensemble and
deterministic guidance continues to show a slow westerly
trajectory, which will lead to gusty winds persisting in the
Western Arctic Coast. However, the ensembles of the ECMWF keep
gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range, while the ensembles of the GFS
have a lot more variability with a drop from Thursday and through
the weekend into the 30 to 40 mph range. So, there are two
scenarios, but both of them would still keep periods of blizzard
to near blizzard conditions. Therefore, the likelihood of the
Blizzard Warning to be extended through the rest of the work week.
Meanwhile, from the Northwest to the Northeast Arctic Coast
guidance shows a quick drop of winds Thursday and beyond.

For this weekend, a deep upper level trough in far north Nunavut
expands towards the North Slope and Brooks Range bringing back
colder temperatures down to -20 to -30F with wind chills
remaining in the -40 to -50F. Farther, south into the Interior the
weakening of the upper ridge will decide if we get an upper trough
moving towards the Eastern/Central Interior, or will it take a
more northerly track into the Bering Strait and the West Coast. We
will have to wait and see where the solutions of the next model
runs end up to gain more confidence in the forecast for this
weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802>805.
     Winter Storm Watch for AKZ832-834.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801>803.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ804.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-809-813-814-816-817-851-854-
     859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ810.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-812-856>858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ850.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$