Ester, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

654
FXAK69 PAFG 131354
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
454 AM AKST Tue Jan 13 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
The Brooks Range passes and eastern Arctic Coast continue to have
wind chills in the 60s below zero, lasting through Wednesday
afternoon. Temperatures in the Interior valleys are in the 40s below
zero, with a few spots colder than 50 below. Even light winds will
push wind chills in those areas towards 60 below. The eastern
Interior will see some relief Tuesday night thanks to cloud cover
and light snow from a low passing over Yakutat, but the western
Interior won`t get much warmer until the arrival of a stronger
system on Thursday. That system will be pulling warm, moist air into
the Interior resulting in heavy snow, strong winds, and potential
for mixed precipitation late this week.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-Skies are clear across the majority of the interior with
 temperatures dropping into the 30s and 40s below zero.
- Temperatures above 1000ft will be in the teens and 20s below zero.

-For Isabel Pass, persistent light snow adds up to 6-10 inches
 through Wednesday evening combined with south winds up to 30 mph.
  - Beginning Thursday, snow will become heavier for both Isabel
    and Windy Pass.
  - Southerly winds through the Alaska Range passes could gust as
    high as 60 to 80 mph on Thursday night.

-Clouds shift west today into tonight bringing warmer temps and
 light snow chances through Wednesday evening. Up to 3 inches are
 possible across the southeast interior, possibly as far west as
 Fairbanks.

-Significantly warmer temperatures possibly warming above freezing
 and strong southerly wind gusts greater than 40 mph are possible
 across large swaths of the interior, including the Fairbanks
 area.


West Coast and Western Interior...
-Cold and mostly clear, temperatures will be well below normal
 this week with Tuesday night likely the coldest night of the
 week.
- Temperatures will likely drop into the 30s and 40s below zero in
      Interior Valleys with teens and 20s below zero along the coast.
    - Wind chills as cold as 60 below zero are possible through
      Wednesday morning.

-Clouds and snow chances spread north across the area Thursday
 morning through Friday. Moderate to locally heavy snowfall is
 possible, most likely across the southern interior in the
 vicinity of Galena and McGrath.


North Slope and Brooks Range...
-Clouds linger across the west-central North Slope through most of
 the week, with the best chance of clearing on Thursday.

-Cold Weather Advisories were continued for wind chills as low as
 70 below zero at times across the eastern Arctic Coast and
 Brooks Range.

-Southwest winds gust up to 40 mph Wednesday afternoon through
 Thursday morning after a lull on Tuesday resulting in localized
 blizzard conditions at times.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 488 dam upper-level low over Deadhorse is bringing cold, dry,
arctic air over the Interior, dropping temperatures in the
Interior Valleys into the 30s, 40s, and even a few 50s below zero.
A 1000 mb surface low collocated under that upper-level low will
continue to produce moderately strong winds along the eastern
Arctic Coast until both lows begin to shift eastward towards the
end of the week. A cold front is stretched across the southeast
corner of the mainland providing moderate cloud cover for the
Upper Tanana Valley and up to around Eagle. A surface low in the
northern Pacific will deepen to 973mb as it moves north into the
Gulf of Alaska tonight. As it does, cloudiness and chances for
snow will increase from the southeast into the Central Interior.
At the same time, the gradient across the state will tighten,
resulting in light easterly winds in the Interior. On Wednesday
the low ejects eastward into Canada, setting up our next system in
the second half of the week.

A 982mb low in the Pacific, in conjunction with a 1040mb ridge
over Canada is pulling up moisture from 20N up towards Alaska by
Thursday afternoon into Friday. Potential hazards
include heavy snow across portions of the interior, strong southerly
Chinook winds, and localized mixed precipitation types. A strong
warm front lifts across the interior on Thursday through Thursday
night. In addition to the aforementioned hazards, a tight
pressure gradient sets up across the Alaska Range. Winds through
the passes could gust as high as 80 mph.


&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The high-impact system at the short term/extended time frame
interface lifts northeast across northern Alaska Friday into Fri
night leaving west-southwest flow aloft in its wake. There is
potential for at least two smaller disturbances embedded within this
flow regime to bring bands of snowfall across the interior. Perhaps
the best news is that the majority of ensemble guidance keeps
temperatures generally above zero across the interior through the
end of the extended period. This warmer period of weather is the
result of the intense western Canada ridge building northwest across
the area.

After the initial blast of warm moist air on Thursday, there are
differences in how the models handle the potential for several
follow up systems. The GFS has a smaller system following quickly
behind the initial front, providing another burst of snow Friday
into Saturday, while the ECMWF has a lull through Saturday before
another lighter wave on Sunday. Regardless of the finer details,
this system will be shaking up our overall pattern and will likely
lead to a more extended period of warmer weather for the Interior.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ804-805-809-828>830-852.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ831>834-845-846.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ805.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ805-851.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806-807-816-817-850-853-854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

TROYKE